— \u0130brahim Devrim<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019de ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da dengeler h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor.\u00a0 Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinde Esad\u2019\u0131 devirmek \u00fczere emperyalizmin toparlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131na, Cenevre toplant\u0131lar\u0131na kabul edilmeyen PYD, \u015fu anda Suriye\u2019deki sava\u015f\u0131n belki de en \u00f6nemli unsuru olmu\u015f durumda. Bu toplant\u0131larda K\u00fcrtleri temsil ediyormu\u015f gibi yapmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kurulan tabela partilerinin veya ithal cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7etelerin aksine ger\u00e7ekten bu topraklarda k\u00f6kleri olan tek \u00f6rg\u00fct PYD-YPG\/J olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen durum b\u00f6yleydi. PYD bir taraftan T\u00fcrkiye, di\u011fer taraftan Barzani\u2019nin KDP\u2019si taraf\u0131ndan izole edilmi\u015fti. KDP bir hayli ileri giderek PYD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 Rojava\u2019da ayaklanma \u00f6rg\u00fctlemeyi bile denedi. Di\u011fer taraftan Suriye rejiminin y\u0131k\u0131lmamas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n ilk y\u0131llar\u0131nda PYD\u2019ye destek vermesi, Rojava\u2019da PYD\u2019nin \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131na yard\u0131m etti. PYD k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir \u00f6rg\u00fct. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te sava\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131na uyum sa\u011flad\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol eden bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/p>\n
PYD Kobane\u2019de ve ard\u0131ndan Tel Abyad\u2019da ko\u015fullar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesinin getirdi\u011fi olanaklar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck zaferler kazand\u0131. ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019de uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 cihat\u00e7\u0131 gruplar\u0131 destekleyerek Esad\u2019\u0131 devirme politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesinde Kobane direni\u015finin b\u00fcy\u00fck rol\u00fc oldu. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu politikan\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc PYD i\u00e7in yeni olanaklar yaratt\u0131. \u00a0ABD cihat\u00e7\u0131 gruplara hala destek verse de sava\u015f\u0131n ilk y\u0131llar\u0131nda izledi\u011fi politikan\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde ciddi bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi (ABD kabul etmese de) anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00a0ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde PYD\u2019yi yok sayma politikas\u0131n\u0131n aksine bug\u00fcn havadan destek veriyor olmas\u0131 bu de\u011fi\u015fimin bir g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n
Cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7etelerden arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bulamayan yani bu \u00e7eteler ile Suriye\u2019de rejimi deviremeyen ABD, PYD\u2019yi Esad rejiminin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki safa \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in bu deste\u011fi veriyor. Fakat bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek ile birlikte I\u015e\u0130D \u00a0ABD taraf\u0131ndan kullan\u0131lan bir sopa olarak b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. PYD veya Irak rejimi ile \u00e7eli\u015fkiler ya\u015fanmas\u0131 durumunda I\u015e\u0130D\u2019nin tekrar K\u00fcrtlerin ya\u015fad\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131k dahilinde. Bu anlamda I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD\u2019nin olduk\u00e7a i\u015fine yar\u0131yor. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler, Musul\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi ABD yard\u0131m\u0131na muhta\u00e7 kal\u0131yor ve tabii ki yard\u0131m alman\u0131n bir bedeli var.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, \u00f6zellikle PYD\u2019nin pozisyonu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin politikas\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. K\u00fcrtlerin Suriye\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki K\u00fcrt sorununu da farkl\u0131 bir boyuta ta\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n YPG\/J taraf\u0131ndan kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan I\u015e\u0130D i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir tedarik hatt\u0131 kapand\u0131. Fakat, hala I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye ile s\u0131n\u0131r hatt\u0131 var ve tedarik hatt\u0131 tamamen kapanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. K\u0131sa vadede PYD\u2019nin bu hatt\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irme ve t\u00fcm ikmal yolunu kapatma ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Yak\u0131n zamanda yeni bir sava\u015f bekleniyor ve bu sava\u015f T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yeni bir \u015fekil vererek T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Suriye\u2019ye m\u00fcdahale olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlayabilir.<\/p>\n
PYD hen\u00fcz d\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyaya ula\u015ft\u0131rmasa da b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda petrol sahas\u0131n\u0131 kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131na ald\u0131. Bir taraftan ABD\u2019nin deste\u011fini k\u0131smen alm\u0131\u015f durumda, di\u011fer taraftan Esad rejimi ile ba\u011flar\u0131 kopmu\u015f de\u011fil. AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmeti PYD\u2019yi zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in \u00e7abalasa da sonu\u00e7 alamad\u0131. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin destekledi\u011fi gruplar PYD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, T\u00fcrkiye ya ABD\u2019nin de\u011fi\u015fen politikas\u0131na ayak uyduracak ya da Suudi Arabistan ve Katar gibi mevcut politikas\u0131na devam edip ABD\u2019nin bunu kabul etmesi i\u00e7in \u0131srar edecek. AKP h\u00fck\u00fcmeti devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece ikinci se\u00e7enek muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son g\u00fcnlerde havuz medyas\u0131ndaki PYD anti-propagandas\u0131 ve I\u015e\u0130D g\u00fczellemeleri AKP\u2019nin PYD\u2019yi saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak bir politikada \u0131srar edece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n tamamen kapanmas\u0131 durumunda TSK\u2019n\u0131n Suriye topraklar\u0131na girmesi ve sava\u015fa do\u011frudan kat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi korkun\u00e7 bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bulundu\u011funu da belirtmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda kritik geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131rken bu cepheye en yak\u0131n Halep\u2019in kuzeyinde ve Keseb\u2019de tutunan Esad rejimi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak di\u011fer cephelerde sava\u015fmaya devam ediyor. Suriye ordusu bug\u00fcne kadar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lerin beklemedi\u011fi bir diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6zellikle, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u015eam\u2019a namaz k\u0131lmaya gitme beklentisindeki AKP\u2019nin hi\u00e7 beklemedi\u011fi bir direni\u015f oldu. Cihat\u00e7\u0131 karde\u015flerine \u00e7ok g\u00fcvenen AKP, PYD konusunda oldu\u011fu gibi Esad rejiminin g\u00fcc\u00fc konusunda da yan\u0131ld\u0131. Suriye ordusu neredeyse be\u015f y\u0131ld\u0131r direniyor. Tabii ki \u0130ran ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fi ve L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n\u0131n Suriye ordusunun yan\u0131nda sava\u015fa kat\u0131lmas\u0131 Esad\u2019\u0131n ayakta kalmas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6neme sahip.<\/p>\n
Son g\u00fcnlerde Esad y\u00f6netiminin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberleri s\u0131k\u00e7a duyulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 psikolojik harp olsa da Suriye ordusunun a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar verdi\u011fi ve yoruldu\u011fu g\u00f6zlemlenebiliyor. S\u0131k\u00e7a duyulan di\u011fer haber, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n askeri dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131 Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekmesi ve bunun Esad\u2019a deste\u011fini sonland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Fakat, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Akdeniz\u2019deki yegane \u00fcss\u00fcnden kolayca vazge\u00e7ebilece\u011fine ve bunun pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yapabilece\u011fine inanmak g\u00fc\u00e7.\u00a0 NATO ile ili\u015fkileri b\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131nda ilerlerken Esad y\u00f6netiminden vazge\u00e7mesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fini \u00e7ekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, bunun bir g\u00f6rev de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi oldu\u011fu ve \u0130ran ordusunun \u00fcst d\u00fczey komutanlar\u0131n\u0131n bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te devreye girerek Suriye ordusu i\u00e7in yeni bir strateji haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Suriye ordusunun a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar verdi\u011fi \u00e7ete sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fck bir saha sava\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunan bir ba\u015fka bilgi var. K\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra hangisinin do\u011fru oldu\u011funu ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer yak\u0131n zamanda beklenen son sava\u015f\u0131 Suriye ordusu kazan\u0131rsa, Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun yeni d\u00fczeninde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha \u00e7ok s\u00f6z sahibi olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini bekleyebiliriz. NATO ve k\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri buna engel olmak i\u00e7in her yolu denedi. B\u00f6yle bir sonu\u00e7 onlar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ciddi bir yenilgi anlam\u0131na gelecek ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD ve kuklalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak.<\/p>\n
Emperyalizmin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede neler yapabilece\u011fini Suriye\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ortado\u011fu barbarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Y\u00fczbinlerce kad\u0131n, erkek, \u00e7ocuk vah\u015fice katledildi. \u0130nsanlar k\u00f6le olarak sat\u0131ld\u0131. Milyonlarca m\u00fclteci hayatta kalma m\u00fccadelesi veriyor. Ya\u015fanan bir din sava\u015f\u0131, inan\u00e7, mezhep sava\u015f\u0131 veya diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cSuriyeli devrimciler\u201din sava\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil. UIluslararas\u0131 sermayenin Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu yeniden d\u00fczenleme sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ve bir payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131. Bu barbarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle ABD\u2019nin ve kuklalar\u0131n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan defedilmesi gerekiyor. Ortado\u011fu halklar\u0131n\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7erisinde bir arada ya\u015famas\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015fka bir yol yok. Bu noktada a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a taraf olmak, Suriye ordusu ve onunla birlikte sava\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin yan\u0131nda yer almak gerekiyor. PYD\u2019nin bug\u00fcn sava\u015f\u0131n kazananlar\u0131ndan birisi oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. Fakat bu noktada PYD i\u00e7in de bir se\u00e7im yapma vakti yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
— \u0130brahim Devrim Suriye\u2019de ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da dengeler h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor.\u00a0 Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinde Esad\u2019\u0131 devirmek \u00fczere emperyalizmin toparlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131na, Cenevre toplant\u0131lar\u0131na kabul edilmeyen PYD, \u015fu anda Suriye\u2019deki sava\u015f\u0131n belki de en \u00f6nemli unsuru olmu\u015f durumda. Bu toplant\u0131larda K\u00fcrtleri temsil ediyormu\u015f gibi yapmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kurulan tabela partilerinin veya ithal cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7etelerin aksine ger\u00e7ekten bu topraklarda k\u00f6kleri […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230],"tags":[228,210,53,229,227,77],"class_list":["post-1386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-13-sayi-22-haziran-2015","tag-esad","tag-ibrahim-devrim","tag-onsayfa","tag-ortadogu","tag-pyd","tag-suriye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1386"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1386\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1411,"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1386\/revisions\/1411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pgbsosyalizm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}